I can’t decide if this blog entry should be about the hazards of short term thinking or about unintended consequences, so I’ll make it a little about both.
Yesterday I woke up thinking about a print project. I’m speaking to a group of our sales people in Chicago next week, and didn’t have a handout ready. I knew what it was going to contain, but at work on Friday when I was going to print my handout our copier went blooey. Plan B was to use Staples to print my project, so when I woke up yesterday I was thinking about Staple’s online service. I fired up my computer, logged on to their website, and in about 5 minutes I had laid out my project, uploaded my files and even paid for the finished print job. I called the store on my way to the gym to answer any questions and make sure they got it right, and went back around noon to pick up the handouts. On my way to the gym to meet my friends Mark and Rhonda for our workout, I realized I was going to be late, so I texted them (not while driving, of course!) to tell them I would be there in a few minutes.
So how does this relate to either short term thinking or unintended consequences? Well may you ask!
First, a little background. Back in 1958, President Dwight Eisenhower created ARPA (Advance Research Projects Agency) to facilitate the development of technology for a variety of applications (but primarily military). ARPA (later renamed DARPA, then back to ARPA, and then back again to DARPA—evidence I think of a little governmental indecision, infighting, or both) worked on a bunch of projects, many of which are probably still buried under many layers of “Top Secret” directives. In one case however, some of their more forward-thinking paranoiacs began worrying about the possibility of an explosive devise knocking out much of the computing capability of the military, if it happened to blow up near key computer centers. This led to the development of a distributed network, where instead of everything being stored on a single server (such as happens with this computer I’m working on, for example), information is distributed over many different servers, much like the brain works. If one server goes offline (or is blown up), the built-in redundancy allows the system to continue uninterrupted operation. This system was called “Arpanet,” after the organization’s acronym at the time. Anyhow, Arpanet, which was initially only for military applications, worked so well it eventually made its way to universities as a way to share files and exchange messages and the internet was born.
A second bit of background. Around the same time (1957, to be exact), the Soviet Union launched a rocket containing a 23-inch diameter shiny metal globe named Sputnik. Sputnik, the first man-made satellite put in orbit around the earth, scared the bejeebers out of the US military brass (and lots of citizens as well), heating up the Cold War and kicking off the Space Race. This ultimately led to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) putting a man on the moon.
Bear with me here; we’re almost there. Arpanet became the internet, which then became the World Wide Web. The space race, in its demand for ever more powerful and ever lighter computing capability, is directly responsible for the inexpensive laptops, cell phones, and cellphone networks we are so dependent upon today. Two very good examples of something being developed for one purpose, and in an almost completely unpredictable fashion became incredibly important and valuable for a totally different purpose. Two military applications (distributed networks and light, powerful and reliable computing machines), morphing into tools that today’s public take almost completely for granted, but imagine what life would be like without them! My exercise in remote communications yesterday morning is something that would have been completely impossible 15 or 20 years ago, and unimaginable a few years before that.
I hope the unintended consequences part of my initial sentence is obvious by now, but what about short-term thinking? Today in this age of sequestration and budget cuts, there are regular calls (usually from the far right) for cuts in basic research grants. “What possible value could come from (fill in the blank here)?” Think where we would be if that question were asked of ARPA and NASA back in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s! No internet, no cell phones and no texting.
Let’s not let that happen. Whenever possible, and in as many ways as possible, make sure you tell your Congressional representatives that you support funding for basic research. Much of it goes nowhere, but every so often we get a massive homerun that makes it all worth it, and I can order a print job from Staples while still in my jammies.
About BigBill
Stats: Married male boomer.
Hobbies: Hiking, woodworking, reading, philosophy, good conversation.
Short term thinking and unintended consequenses.
I can’t decide if this blog entry should be about the hazards of short term thinking or about unintended consequences, so I’ll make it a little about both.
Yesterday I woke up thinking about a print project. I’m speaking to a group of our sales people in Chicago next week, and didn’t have a handout ready. I knew what it was going to contain, but at work on Friday when I was going to print my handout our copier went blooey. Plan B was to use Staples to print my project, so when I woke up yesterday I was thinking about Staple’s online service. I fired up my computer, logged on to their website, and in about 5 minutes I had laid out my project, uploaded my files and even paid for the finished print job. I called the store on my way to the gym to answer any questions and make sure they got it right, and went back around noon to pick up the handouts. On my way to the gym to meet my friends Mark and Rhonda for our workout, I realized I was going to be late, so I texted them (not while driving, of course!) to tell them I would be there in a few minutes.
So how does this relate to either short term thinking or unintended consequences? Well may you ask!
First, a little background. Back in 1958, President Dwight Eisenhower created ARPA (Advance Research Projects Agency) to facilitate the development of technology for a variety of applications (but primarily military). ARPA (later renamed DARPA, then back to ARPA, and then back again to DARPA—evidence I think of a little governmental indecision, infighting, or both) worked on a bunch of projects, many of which are probably still buried under many layers of “Top Secret” directives. In one case however, some of their more forward-thinking paranoiacs began worrying about the possibility of an explosive devise knocking out much of the computing capability of the military, if it happened to blow up near key computer centers. This led to the development of a distributed network, where instead of everything being stored on a single server (such as happens with this computer I’m working on, for example), information is distributed over many different servers, much like the brain works. If one server goes offline (or is blown up), the built-in redundancy allows the system to continue uninterrupted operation. This system was called “Arpanet,” after the organization’s acronym at the time. Anyhow, Arpanet, which was initially only for military applications, worked so well it eventually made its way to universities as a way to share files and exchange messages and the internet was born.
A second bit of background. Around the same time (1957, to be exact), the Soviet Union launched a rocket containing a 23-inch diameter shiny metal globe named Sputnik. Sputnik, the first man-made satellite put in orbit around the earth, scared the bejeebers out of the US military brass (and lots of citizens as well), heating up the Cold War and kicking off the Space Race. This ultimately led to the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) putting a man on the moon.
Bear with me here; we’re almost there. Arpanet became the internet, which then became the World Wide Web. The space race, in its demand for ever more powerful and ever lighter computing capability, is directly responsible for the inexpensive laptops, cell phones, and cellphone networks we are so dependent upon today. Two very good examples of something being developed for one purpose, and in an almost completely unpredictable fashion became incredibly important and valuable for a totally different purpose. Two military applications (distributed networks and light, powerful and reliable computing machines), morphing into tools that today’s public take almost completely for granted, but imagine what life would be like without them! My exercise in remote communications yesterday morning is something that would have been completely impossible 15 or 20 years ago, and unimaginable a few years before that.
I hope the unintended consequences part of my initial sentence is obvious by now, but what about short-term thinking? Today in this age of sequestration and budget cuts, there are regular calls (usually from the far right) for cuts in basic research grants. “What possible value could come from (fill in the blank here)?” Think where we would be if that question were asked of ARPA and NASA back in the late ‘50s and early ‘60s! No internet, no cell phones and no texting.
Let’s not let that happen. Whenever possible, and in as many ways as possible, make sure you tell your Congressional representatives that you support funding for basic research. Much of it goes nowhere, but every so often we get a massive homerun that makes it all worth it, and I can order a print job from Staples while still in my jammies.
About BigBill
Stats: Married male boomer. Hobbies: Hiking, woodworking, reading, philosophy, good conversation.